Partly Cloudy / 73° F
What or Who is to Blame?
Published 8:24pm Sunday, May 22, 2011The loss of Harmon Killebrew and the Twins play this year has really been a downer. It makes it kinda tough to write about what’s going and not make it come out the same old same old.
It is hard to blame anyone in particular for the play of the Twins this year and to pin point anything maybe we look at all the injuries. The Twins had some players who didn’t get started early in spring training for various reasons. Delmon Young was hurting or sick, Justin Morneau was still recovering from his concussion, Joe Nathan was trying to come back from Tommy John surgery, and Joe Mauer was trying to come back from knee surgery.
Because of these ailments these players may not have been ready to start the season and it was proven by their play. Then Young and Mauer got hurt and Morneau got sick to add to it all. To add more Nishioka gets hurt along with Jim Thome and Jason Repko. The people the Twins have used to fill are either not ready for the big leagues or they just aren’t that good.
One interesting thing that came out of a Joe Mauer interview was how the medical staff treated him. It was one of those, “read between the lines” things, but he seemed to say that maybe the medical staff didn’t exactly treat his injuries right, or there was a miss diagnosis or something. I found that interesting because I have at times questioned the medical staff of the Twins because of all the injuries they seem to have.
I have also mentioned here before that with the injuries it has shown just where our minor league system has gone. Last year our AAA team and top AA teams were dead last in their divisions. With the players they have called up and the way they have played I think we now know why that was the case.
The bullpen was a question mark coming in as a lot of guys were leaving to free agency. The players that were brought in have not done the job except for Glen Perkins, but oh yeah, he just got hurt. The catchers that have replaced Mauer are hitting way below the Mendoza line. In fact they are making the legendary Mendoza look like an All Star.
So what is going on? Obviously the injuries have hurt and there is nothing you can do about that, but the minor league system and the people brought in to do the back ups and the decision to start Casilla is very upsetting and you can’t help but look to Billy Smith.
Billy did a good job from the start but except for Nishioka he has done little to improve the team who lost right away in the playoffs last year. I’m also not sure who is responsible for the minor league system but that should be a huge priority.
We Twins fans may have to suck it up for awhile before all of this gets straightened out but it is something that needs to be done.
I know some of you out there may say that the season isn’t over yet because when we get everyone back things will be great and Cleveland just can’t keep playing this way. First of all, the Twins are 14 ½ games back and when the injured Twins get back they still have to get back in playing shape. It could be too late. As far as the Indians collapsing, why can’t they keep going? Who is to say this isn’t their year? Then the Tigers are only a couple of games out of first, so they still may be the team to beat.
-Harmon Killebrew wasn’t the best guy to get a good quote from. He was such a nice guy that sometimes that doesn’t translates into good quotes but I do like this one.
“I learned at an early age that I could hit a ball a long way and that is what I did.”
Is it over? Nope. It will be yes, if things don’t turn around. But its way too early to call it. There are four reasons that the flame of my eternal optimism has not been terminally snuffed.
First, just because it looks over doesn’t mean that it is over. We recall the shouting in June, 2006, for Ryan to start unloading guys because it was over. The team sucked and was playing poorly. But it wasn’t over. In how many of the seasons during the Braves’ run of division championships in the ‘90′s were they back by 6, 8, 12 games in late June? A lot. What is the foundation of winning the division? Beating up on the other teams in the division of course. The Twins have played 12 games within the AL Central so far. They have 60 games left! Whether the Twins win the division depends more on what is to come than on what has happened so far. 162 games is 162 games, not 40.
Second, there are some good signs, small as they are. Kubel looks more comfortable at the plate than he ever has and is putting up huge numbers. Span is hitting well and playing improved defense. Despite a few isolated and glaring incidents, Delmon is showing significantly improved play in the field, and just starting to come alive at the plate. Morneau is getting stronger and closer to dialing in at the plate. Baker and Blackburn have both strung together some wonderful pitching performances. Liriano hasn’t found his way out of the forest yet, but is showing that he’s got a better idea where the path is. Plouffe has a bat good enough to renew an effort to teach him better fundamentals in the field – he may be the shortstop.
Third, the Twins’ talent level is vastly above what their record now reflects. As Delmon and Morneau round into shape and return to form, and as the guys start coming off the DL, it will look like a major talent influx for the team. If the team can get and stay relatively healthy over the balance of the season, the talent level alone will produce a resurgence.
And finally, the schedule. While the Twins have played fewer games at home than any team in baseball so far, after this 3 game series against Seattle and a 3 game series against the Agelenos, they’re back on the road for another 10-game road trip. That takes it to June 9, by which time the Twins will have played 40 of their first 62 games on the road. If the Twins are going to make a season of it, June 9 begins the Golden Open Window. Between June 9 and September 1, the Twins play 47 home games and only 29 road games. September will be an easy month with 5 off-days, and a balanced schedule primarily against Central Division Foes. That will be time to nail it down, if the team does what it needs to do during the Golden Open Window.
I’m not saying that the team has sucked just because the schedule has sucked. But most teams, the Twins have historically had a much better win-loss at home than on the road. Last season the team was 25 games over .500 at home. And while road games are tougher, the toughest is in AL East parks. The Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays were a combined 64 games above .500 at home last year. Going into those parks is tough. Each of the Central Division teams is scheduled to play 18 or 19 road games v. the AL East this year. Thus far, the Sox have played 8 and have 11 remaining. The Tigers have played 12 and have 7 remaining. Here’s where it gets interesting. The Twins have played 18 and have -0- remaining, while the Indians have played -0- and have 18 remaining. We’ll see how Cleveland’s young pitchers maintain their composure through those stretches. Maybe they’ll do just fine. If so, then maybe the Indians deserve the Central Division Crown. But again, they’ll have to survive that, and then win it head-to head.
To recap, improved health, improved performance. Golden Open Window. 60 games left in the division. Done with AL East road trips.
It ain’t over. The Fat Lady still hasn’t even arrived at the Park. Its just that we now know what she looks like.
Tracy, I admire your eternal optimism and I hope you are right on all accounts and that I eat crow by the end of the season. No the fat lady isn’t singing but she has picked out her music and is map questing Target Field. Before everyone got hurt or sick the team was not playing well. I appreciate all your work at looking at the schedule and your optimism that the guys will perform when they get back from injury, but I look at the way the team has played so far, even with the starters in there. I have also seen managerial and coaching decisions that have been questionable. The whole vibe so far is just off. I will remain a Twins fan and hope that they do turn it around but every team has an off year and the Twins have done well now for awhile.So maybe this is that down year.
Yes Tracy, great analysis once again. The scheduling/matchups down the road do hint at possible optimism potential, but like Tom said, the vibe just isn’t there for me either. The old saying is you need to be strong up the middle to win in the big leagues. This team right now… Butera at catcher, revolving AAA ss/2b combos, and well… Span in cf. I’ve never been a SpanFan… it seems that he has a talent for juuuust about getting to a lot of balls out there… but not quite. That, and his bonehead baserunning drive me crazy.
Delmon has been nothing short of HORRIFIC so far… hitting and fielding. He had a stretch of 9 SO in 10 abs. And, I think it was in Toronto… he gets burned by a ball over his head that bounces off of the wall, then turns around and waves at Span to get it when it was just 20 feet away! Span had to cover probably 40 yards to get there. If I was Span, I think I would have popped him right there!
Morneau… ugh. I don’t know what to think. He’s pulling off the ball so bad right now, plus swinging at too many that are waaaay out of the strike zone. He looks lost.
I like the Golden Open Window theory… but if by the All-Star break, we’re not single digits out of first, I look for Pavano, Liriano, Young, Capps, and maybe Span to be shopped around to contending teams for some top-level prospects. I also look for Gardy to be “promoted” to the front office somewhere, and hopefully Molitor gets offered the managers job.
If all the optimism that Tracy has written about comes to pass, the awfull bullpen will ruin it. Even you Tracy can’t say much optimistic about the bullpen.
I’ve been the voice of optimism on this site, because, well . . . someone’s got to do it. Here’s my best analogy, and if you’re a parent, you may relate. Imagine your kid does something really stupid and all you want to do is yell at them. But your spouse beats you to it and really lets them have it. And while you want to yell at them too, you know someone has to talk calmly to them about learning the right lessons from this, and the consequences, and what happens going forward. Someone’s gotta do it, and you realize, “I guess it must be up to me” (Dylan quote).
Tom, I appreciate your concession that while the Fat Lady may be mapquesting, she’s not at the park yet. You have a penchant for pessimism that I worry gets in the way of your appreciation of the baseball season as it unfolds. Even during the Twins worst seasons, there were lots of great plays, compelling individual stories, and riveting in-game dramas. That, plus the run for Division Crown all lay in front of us. Are the Twins going to win the Division? I doubt it. But if the improbable happens, I sure don’t want to miss it.
So here’s what’s got my shorts in a knot. First, the bullpen is in shambles. You build a pen from the back forward. While anyone can close, Capps can’t. Nathan is not ready to close, and at best is a work in progress. Perkins is on the shelf and Mijares is Mijares. The calculated gambles on Hooey, Hughes, Dumintrait, James, etc. are not panning out, and Manship and Swarzak are just not progressing.
And Slowey? Geez. What a waste. They are now talking about trading him. Even if you package prospects with him, what do you try to get in return? More bull pen arms? A closer? The Twins are already paying two guys closer money and still don’t have one.
Second, the middle infield mess – Casilla seems to be settling back into second base, but seriously, does anyone think he is the long term answer there? Can Plouffe really learn to charge the ball, put his glove on it, set his feet and make a good throw? Why didn’t he learn these things in the minors? I think Nishi has the makings of a good ML’er. But I didn’t think he’d have such a learning (or adjustment) curve. It doesn’t look like he’s going to be a serious contributor any time soon.
Catching? Geez. Gardy calls them “catch-and-throw” guys. I now understand what that means – they are at best Two-Tool players. Can any of them raise their BA above Blyleven’s career BA? Being the optimist that I am reputed to be, I’ll bet the over, but I’m not putting much money on it. All of this is moot once Mauer is back. But when will that be? His whole situation has been shrouded in mystery – we haven’t been told squat about what’s happening physically with him, and that raises Tom’s question – do they know squat? I’ll feel a lot better when Mauer is back and producing, or at least when there is a firm date.
Starting pitching – there’s potential, but seriously, at this point are any of the Twins starters in the top SEVENTY in baseball?
I could go on, but I’m starting to sound like Tom.
It doesn’t matter. All of this will be crystal clear in hindsight
When the tide comes in and everything is going well, it’s hard to see what the reality of the team is. Going into this spring, I could see the talent and see what they did last year and expect good things this year. But now the tide has gone out, and as Warren Buffet says, “When the tide goes out, you find out who’s naked!” Well we are pretty naked in some areas. The bullpen has been exposed as a total wash out, save Perkins. Casilla has been exposed as a bomb. Our backup catchers are a disaster. Our minor league system is down alot. I am more and more going in Tom’s direction on our pitching coach also. The pitchers can either be very good, or very bad, and there is little consistency. I am going to lay that in the lap of Anderson until someone proves me wrong.
There will be better times for the Twins this year with players returning. Valencia, Plouffe, and Nishy will deserve a chance to be pros. Span, Morneau, Kubell, and Thome will be there. The catching situation is hazardous at best. Mauer is no sure bet to return this year and that leaves us with nothing there. Neither Cuddyer or Delmon are playing like major leaguers. which is a big concern. Cuddyer is alright but not for the money he’s being paid. Young might be gone and probably rightfully so. That being said though, there is little hope of playoffs and a turn-a-round with out a bull pen. That doesn’t mean we can’t find something fun about them to follow though.
The fat lady did stop in Herman the other day and ask for the sheet music and directions to Target Field.
One last comment, did you realize that the Indians have a 30-15 record and yet do not have neither Hafner nor Sizemore playing. I think that makes them a favorite this year.
Randy, Thank you! That’s the best ray of hope so far — that the Fat Lady stopped in Herman for directions! Nobody gets good directions by asking in Herman. That gives the team a couple of extra weeks.
The directions I gave her actually sent her to Melby so I think we have more than two weeks!
I was at the Twins game Saturday night, $10 nose-bleed seats, top row, section 304. My thoughts/notes from the game:
One run scored in ten innings with seven hits – 1 by the Angelinos, and 6 by the Twins with 4 of those in the 10th inning. What a marvelous pitchers’ duel. And, thankfully, in our group of eight people not one whined about the game being boring.
Anthony Swarzak!!! At the 40 pitch mark he had thrown 19 strikes and 21 balls, walking two batters. From then on he pounded the strike zone at a 3-1 strikes to balls ratio.
Weaver’s pitching line: 9 innings, 128 pitches, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts. Tenth inning relievers Takahishi & Jepson: 1/3 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, 1 strikeout, 16 pitches and the loss. Moral: crap doesn’t just happen to Twins’ starting pitchers.
Andy Fletcher, second base umpire that night, should have been sitting next to me, way up where the trade winds blow. I could see that Span was unequivocally safe at second. Perhaps the good Mr. Fletcher was too close to see things clearly, sometimes we need some distance to get the right perspective.
Kramarchuk brats with kraut, fried onions, and mustard are a “9″, but Tony Oliva Cuban sandwiches are still the ten.
Anthony Swarzak!!! After Bourjos lined the clean double down the left field line to break up the no-hitter with one out in the eighth, Swarzak got a standing ovation. When was the last time a Twins pitcher got a standing ovation at Target Field? (Liriano’s no-hitter was at US Cellular Field).
Two outs in the eighth inning. It must be my glasses or the distance, but Dumatrait and Burnett warming up in the pen sure look like Rick Lysander and Lenny Whitehouse. Question – was the pen of Ron Davis, Pete Filson, Lysander & Whitehouse better or worse than what the Twins have now?
Anthony Swarzak!!! Stepped in to the breach like Tom Seaver. He’s gotta make the rotation now, right? Is Billy Smith on the phone yet shopping Frankie? I hope they’re not considering something stupid like Duensing to the pen.
Capps in the bottom of the 9th – Six pitches, six strikes, three outs!! Yep, anyone can close.
Thome, with a fresh cortisone shot, pinch hits in the bottom of the 9th. What a buzz in the stands. Almost a Harmon-type buzz. Not this time. Whiff.
Burnett in the 10th – 1-2-3 inning – ten pitches, one punch out. Definitely better than Lysander.
Bottom of the 10th – four singles with Danny V getting the pie in the face. Twins need more pies in the face.
Swarzak… don’t know… even a blind squirrel…
Span was out on the pickoff… he slid in with his hand in time alright… but he got a handful of shoe instead… never touched the bag til after the tag.
Liriano is “sore” again… c’mon, let’s trade this guy while he’s still worth something!