Flurries in the Fergus forecast?

By Bob Williams | The Daily Journal

Published Saturday, October 27, 2007

With weekend low temperatures dipping below the freezing mark, the possibility of flurries is in the forecast for the first time this season.

According to National Weather Service, Saturday’s forecast is partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain or snow showers. Highs are expected to be in the mid 40s with northwest winds around 10 mph.

Even if winter is here, the trend of a more congenial old man winter should continue. Local forecasters have relative opinions on the particulars and agree it’s all about La Niña.

“The outlook does indicate a slightly greater chance of a warmer winter season through most of Minnesota, including Fergus Falls,” KVLY Meteorologist Lisa Green said.

“Combine history with a developing La Nina climate cycle, and all signs point to a slightly colder than average Winter with slightly above-average snowfall,” Fox News’ Kip Hines said. “In a nutshell, we'll still have to shovel about 55 inches of snow and it will “feel” a lot colder while we're doing it, because we've gotten used to the wimpy Winters of the last decade.”

According to Green, La Niña is part of the same circulation in the Pacific Ocean that produces El Niño. During an El Niño year, warm water collects on the eastern side of the Pacific Ocean. Historically, that tends to result in a warmer than average winter in our region.

“According to our local National Weather Service office in Grand Forks, some forecast models indicate La Niña conditions will intensify in the coming months,” Green said. “If that does pan out, history tells us there is a greater likelihood for a colder, wetter than average winter season.”

KX-4’s Shawna Olson agrees. “It typically means we will see an “average winter” meaning average temp and average snowfall,” she said. “Still average for us is a very cold winter with a fair amount of snow.”

Last year's winter was influenced by a weak to moderate El Niño. The season was mild until the El Niño subsided and a cold snap hit in February. During La Niña, colder water develops at the surface in the eastern Pacific. This typically results in colder average temperatures during the winter months and more precipitation (snow) in this part of the country. Not every La Niña winter follows that pattern because some are not strong enough to influence our local climate.

“We haven't had a brutal Winter around here since 1996-1997,” Hines said. “That's a trend that should not be ignored with this year's outlook.”

This year, La Niña was weak at the onset. The Climate Prediction Center's official outlook indicates a typical winter for most of the area with the usual daily variabilities and extremes in temperature and precipitation.

WDAY 6 Storm Tracker Meteorologist John Wheeler summed up his prediction with, “there is no strong indication of any weather anomalies that would suggest any particular trends this winter, including around here.”

“What I'm saying is I have no idea what kind of winter is coming our way,” he said. “If I did, I'd sell the information to Otter Tail Power Company and retire immediately.”