Twins GM did best he could

By Joel Myhre (Contact) | The Daily Journal

Published Friday, February 1, 2008

Based on my columns in the past, a few people have asked me about the Twins’ decision to trade Johan Santana, the game’s best pitcher, to the Mets for four obscure prospects.

My response is, if the only factor is whether the Twins, in outfielder Carlos Gomez and righthanded pitchers Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra, received fair value for Santana, my answer would be, of course not.

While these guys might turn out to be all-stars in a few years, there’s a good chance none of these players will be on the Twins’ opening day roster. The only time you’ll hear about them is if you read the statistics provided in the Twin Cities dailies from the Twins’ minor league teams. What it means is that the Twins fortified their farm system, but left a gigantic hole in the 2008 pitching rotation.

However, anyone who was expecting fair value – which would likely have been a frontline center fielder, a compete-for-a-starting-spot starting pitcher and a young-but-potentially-great starting pitcher – were kidding themselves.

The factors that prevented the Twins from making a better deal were Santana’s demands and baseball economics.

To review:

Santana was scheduled to make $13.25 million this season, and become a free agent at the end of the season.

The Twins had offered Santana a five-year contract for $100 million. He wants more, and the belief is that he would rather play in a larger market than the Twin Cities.

Through his agent, Santana basically told the Twins last week that if a deal wasn’t made by yesterday, he was going to refuse any trades after that – including any potential midseason trades — play out the season and become a free agent.

According to the rules, if Santana signed with a team other than the Twins at the end of the 2008 season, that team would have to give the Twins two number one draft picks.

In order to get him to waive his no-trade clause, the Mets had to sign him to a contract extension, believed to include a $9 million signing bonus and a contract that would be worth about $150 million over seven years.

What does this all mean? It means that the Mets knew that they had the Twins over a barrel.

The Mets were likely going to sign Santana at the end of the season; no one else would likely be willing or able to pay him what he wants.

So the real question isn’t whether they got fair value in return for Santana. The question is, what would be worth more to the Twins: another all-star season from Santana at a price of $13.25 million and then two number 1 draft picks, or the Mets’ four prospects?

Based on my research, the Twins were much better off taking what the Mets had to offer.

First off, the Twins were mediocre last year, and lost players like Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva due to free agency. If they only get him for a year, the Twins would be better off giving a young pitcher a shot than paying Santana.

Secondly, of the 15 number one picks the Twins have made over the past decade, only three have actually made it to the majors: Joe Mauer, Scott Baker and Glen Perkins. The rest – from Ben Revere to Ryan Mills to Rob Bowen to Matt Moses – are either still in the minors, or selling shoes somewhere.

Based on previous trades, the Twins are really, really good at identifying players in the minor leagues who are potentially major leaguers. Based on their draft history, the Twins, and many other teams, aren’t so good at identifying players in high school and college who will one day be major leaguers.

It’s painful to say, but Twins’ general manager Bill Smith did the best he could.

Joel Myhre is The Journal’s general manager. E-mail him at joel.myhre@fergusfallsjournal.com