Livan are you still around?
By Tom Grout
August 6, 2008
Is it to late to get Livan Hernandez back? Seriously, I’m serious. I know all the stat geeks out there were glad to see him go, but I have been saying all along stats are good for some things but everything.
Hernandez was acquired to be an innings eater and that is what he was. Yes his era was high and he gave up a lot of early runs. But many times he settled down after the first couple of innings and pitched into the 8th inning to give the bullpen a rest. Giving the bullpen a rest is very important especially with a very young pitching staff. Very seldom does this staff go beyond the 7th inning and many times they don’t make it to the 7th. This, obviously, can be tough on a bullpen and that’s what we are seeing now.
Matt Guerrier is showing signs of fatigue just as Pat Neshek did last year. Speaking of Neshek I said a long time ago that his injury more than anyone elses hurt the team the most. It’s like new Viking Jerold Allen should make everyone else on the defense look better; Neshek had that same effect on the Twins bullpen. The Twins knew that the bullpen was their weakest link a long time ago but they got nothing done at the trade deadline. Ok, the Twins said they tried, but the fact remains, they didn’t get it done. Now Liriano is up and in the rotation, as well he should, but they are really going to watch his pitch count which means more work for the bullpen.
It was interesting to see Gardy bring in his closer in the 8th inning the other day and even though it didn’t work this time I was glad to see it. I have said before that the closer is the most overrated position on a major league pitching staff and I now have some stats to prove it. Some guy did a study dating every game from 1901 that had a lead going into the ninth inning. When a team has a three run lead going into the ninth they win 96% of the time, with a two run lead it is 94% and with a one run lead its 85%. So bringing in a closer to close out a game hasn’t changed all that much.
It’s only been in recent years that a closer only comes into the game to start a ninth inning with nobody on base. In most games the game really needs to be saved in the 7th or 8th and if a team doesn’t have other good relievers there will be no game to save. The Twins are now in that situation.
On a football note, it is now believed that Brett Favre may approve a trade to Tampa Bay. Do you suppose Favre would work out a deal with the Bucs that as soon as they get him they trade him to the Vikings?
Tom --
Very good point on the innings that Livan pitched and kept the bullpen from having to pitch. That could be one of the prices the team pays for dumping him. I thought he had to go because after the league got a good look at him his effectiveness decreased dramatically, and if they weren't going to put LIriano in the pen, there was no other good choice.
Interesting numbers on late inning leads. As the role of the closer has changed in recent years, it would be interesting to see if the percentages changed in a corresponding manner. If not, that would support your point, Tom. Otherwise, it would support using the best reliever last.
As far as using Nathan in the 8th inning, geez. Its no surprise the Twins have had a bullpen problem most of the season, and an 8th inning problem that has been growing bigger. Pulling Nathan out of his comfort zone where he has had good success may not be the best idea. He's the one guy in the pen that has been pretty consistent in doing his job. He has pitched more innings than most closers anyway, and we all know his problems in the non-save situations. With the struggles of Gurrier and Crain, are they going to screw Nathan up as well?
There was some talk of flipping Bass & Bonzer. I'd like to see it, but am doubtful that it will solve anything.
TDog-The story said that the percentages haven't changed since 1901. It has been the same every year. Look up Seth Speaks and look for the Jim Cable link. I haven't had time to read the whole article but it was very interesting.
I like your new picture on the front page, but i'm not a fan of your idea to bring back Livan. Why bring in someone who will give up 6 runs a game when you could have a young pitcher do the same thing while developing into something better? I'm enjoying this youth movement the Twins seem to be on...it might not pay off this year, but give it a year or two...(how long have we been saying that, however!).
Tom --
Regarding the closer, I'm not sure what you mean. Do you mean simply that a closer is over-rated? As in, being paid too much, or written about too much in the papers? Or do you mean that closers should routinely be used earlier in games?
I read the Jim Caple article you steered me to. That was primarily an anti-closer screed. He did refer to a Retrosheet study by David W. Smith. Smith's study was interesting, but doesn't necessarily support Caple's conclusions.
Tom --
You'll need to check out LEN 3's article in the Trib today if you haven't. It says all of the things you've been waiting to hear: Nathan will get the call more often in the 8th inning! It also quoted Gardenhire on the reasons that he is reluctant to do that more often: "You do it every once in a while and you can get away with it. If you use him one time for two innings, you may miss him for two games. You may lose two games because you don't have your best closer, or you will burn him out. He will be toast."
This makes some sense, but I'm sure Jim Caple would disagree with smoke coming out of his ears. He says anyone can pitch the ninth inning. No big deal. But then, according to him, you've gotta have your flame-thrower for the seventh & eighth. If anyone can pitch the 9th, why not the 7th & 8th? Not sure that Caple has really thought it all through, but he really does spout a great rant.
Livan got absolutely SHELLED in his debut for Colorado. Sure you still want him back? :)
Livan is terrible. He gives up tons of baserunners every year. Some folks like the fact that this doesn't rattle him - he just goes about his business. I think it should rattle, as he is a professional athlete. We can find a better inning eater. Remember Rick Reed during the playoff runs a few years back? You're asking for the same thing.
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